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Completed forecasts

01 Other50 trades

Will a reusable lunar lander complete a crewed mission before 2030?

Yes39.3%

No60.7%

-10.7 pp

Probability history by forecast update
Update	Yes	No
0	50.0%	50.0%
1	50.2%	49.8%
2	50.0%	50.0%
3	49.7%	50.3%
4	49.5%	50.5%
5	49.3%	50.7%
6	49.0%	51.0%
7	48.8%	51.2%
8	48.5%	51.5%
9	48.3%	51.7%
10	48.0%	52.0%
11	47.8%	52.2%
12	47.6%	52.4%
13	47.3%	52.7%
14	47.1%	52.9%
15	46.9%	53.1%
16	46.6%	53.4%
17	46.4%	53.6%
18	46.2%	53.8%
19	45.9%	54.1%
20	45.7%	54.3%
21	45.5%	54.5%
22	45.2%	54.8%
23	45.0%	55.0%
24	44.8%	55.2%
25	44.6%	55.4%
26	44.3%	55.7%
27	44.1%	55.9%
28	43.9%	56.1%
29	43.7%	56.3%
30	43.5%	56.5%
31	43.3%	56.7%
32	43.0%	57.0%
33	42.8%	57.2%
34	42.6%	57.4%
35	42.4%	57.6%
36	42.2%	57.8%
37	42.0%	58.0%
38	41.8%	58.2%
39	41.6%	58.4%
40	41.3%	58.7%
41	41.1%	58.9%
42	40.9%	59.1%
43	40.7%	59.3%
44	40.5%	59.5%
45	40.3%	59.7%
46	40.1%	59.9%
47	39.9%	60.1%
48	39.7%	60.3%
49	39.5%	60.5%
50	39.3%	60.7%

18 Sept 2026Read the analysis

02 Technology50 trades

Will an AI system win a major international mathematics prize by 2029?

Yes44.1%

No55.9%

-5.9 pp

Probability history by forecast update
Update	Yes	No
0	50.0%	50.0%
1	50.1%	49.9%
2	50.0%	50.0%
3	49.9%	50.1%
4	49.8%	50.2%
5	49.5%	50.5%
6	49.4%	50.6%
7	49.3%	50.7%
8	49.1%	50.9%
9	49.0%	51.0%
10	48.9%	51.1%
11	48.8%	51.2%
12	48.6%	51.4%
13	48.5%	51.5%
14	48.4%	51.6%
15	48.3%	51.7%
16	48.2%	51.8%
17	48.0%	52.0%
18	47.9%	52.1%
19	47.8%	52.2%
20	47.7%	52.3%
21	47.6%	52.4%
22	47.4%	52.6%
23	47.3%	52.7%
24	47.2%	52.8%
25	47.1%	52.9%
26	47.0%	53.0%
27	46.9%	53.1%
28	46.7%	53.3%
29	46.6%	53.4%
30	46.5%	53.5%
31	46.4%	53.6%
32	46.3%	53.7%
33	46.2%	53.8%
34	46.0%	54.0%
35	45.9%	54.1%
36	45.8%	54.2%
37	45.7%	54.3%
38	45.6%	54.4%
39	45.4%	54.6%
40	45.2%	54.8%
41	45.1%	54.9%
42	45.0%	55.0%
43	44.9%	55.1%
44	44.8%	55.2%
45	44.7%	55.3%
46	44.6%	55.4%
47	44.5%	55.5%
48	44.3%	55.7%
49	44.2%	55.8%
50	44.1%	55.9%

18 Sept 2026Read the analysis

03 Technology50 trades

will the medical profession be replaced by agents and robots before 2032

Yes39.5%

No60.5%

-10.5 pp

Probability history by forecast update
Update	Yes	No
0	50.0%	50.0%
1	49.9%	50.1%
2	49.8%	50.2%
3	49.5%	50.5%
4	49.4%	50.6%
5	49.1%	50.9%
6	48.9%	51.1%
7	46.5%	53.5%
8	46.3%	53.7%
9	46.2%	53.8%
10	46.0%	54.0%
11	45.9%	54.1%
12	45.6%	54.4%
13	45.5%	54.5%
14	45.4%	54.6%
15	45.3%	54.7%
16	45.2%	54.8%
17	45.0%	55.0%
18	44.9%	55.1%
19	44.7%	55.3%
20	44.6%	55.4%
21	44.5%	55.5%
22	44.4%	55.6%
23	43.3%	56.7%
24	43.2%	56.8%
25	43.1%	56.9%
26	43.0%	57.0%
27	42.9%	57.1%
28	42.8%	57.2%
29	42.7%	57.3%
30	42.6%	57.4%
31	42.3%	57.7%
32	42.1%	57.9%
33	41.9%	58.1%
34	41.8%	58.2%
35	41.7%	58.3%
36	41.5%	58.5%
37	41.4%	58.6%
38	41.1%	58.9%
39	41.0%	59.0%
40	40.9%	59.1%
41	40.8%	59.2%
42	40.7%	59.3%
43	40.5%	59.5%
44	40.4%	59.6%
45	40.2%	59.8%
46	40.1%	59.9%
47	39.9%	60.1%
48	39.8%	60.2%
49	39.7%	60.3%
50	39.5%	60.5%

20 Sept 2026Read the analysis

04 Other50 trades

Vem kommer att leda nästa svenska regering som tolereras av riksdagen?

Ulf Kristersson30.0%

Magdalena Anderssson42.6%

Annan27.4%

Probability history by forecast update
Update	Ulf Kristersson	Magdalena Anderssson	Annan
0	33.3%	33.3%	33.3%
1	33.7%	33.2%	33.2%
2	32.8%	34.8%	32.3%
3	32.8%	35.0%	32.3%
4	32.6%	35.3%	32.1%
5	32.5%	35.5%	32.0%
6	32.4%	35.6%	31.9%
7	32.3%	35.9%	31.8%
8	32.1%	36.3%	31.6%
9	32.3%	36.2%	31.5%
10	32.2%	36.3%	31.5%
11	32.5%	36.2%	31.3%
12	32.4%	36.3%	31.2%
13	32.3%	36.6%	31.1%
14	32.2%	36.8%	31.0%
15	32.0%	37.1%	30.8%
16	31.9%	37.4%	30.7%
17	32.1%	37.3%	30.6%
18	32.0%	37.5%	30.5%
19	32.1%	37.4%	30.5%
20	32.0%	37.7%	30.3%
21	31.9%	37.9%	30.2%
22	31.8%	38.0%	30.2%
23	31.7%	38.3%	30.0%
24	31.5%	38.6%	29.9%
25	31.4%	38.8%	29.8%
26	31.4%	38.9%	29.7%
27	31.3%	39.1%	29.6%
28	31.2%	39.2%	29.6%
29	31.0%	39.5%	29.4%
30	30.9%	39.8%	29.3%
31	30.7%	40.1%	29.1%
32	30.6%	40.4%	29.0%
33	30.5%	40.6%	28.9%
34	30.4%	40.7%	28.8%
35	30.6%	40.6%	28.8%
36	30.4%	40.9%	28.6%
37	30.4%	41.1%	28.5%
38	30.3%	41.2%	28.5%
39	30.1%	41.5%	28.3%
40	30.0%	41.8%	28.2%
41	29.9%	42.0%	28.1%
42	29.8%	42.2%	28.0%
43	30.0%	42.1%	27.9%
44	30.0%	42.2%	27.8%
45	29.9%	42.4%	27.7%
46	30.1%	42.3%	27.7%
47	30.2%	42.2%	27.6%
48	30.2%	42.3%	27.5%
49	30.1%	42.5%	27.5%
50	30.0%	42.6%	27.4%

14 Sept 2026Read the analysis

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